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Top 10 Hidden Biases Part II

Phil

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Part II – Hidden Biases in your trading

In Part One, we covered Confirmation bias, recency bias, the endowment effect, the groupthink bias and the gambler’s fallacy.


Today we’ll cover our final five, and I’ll provide you with a handy checklist so you can take 60 seconds and potentially stop yourself from rushing into something catastrophic.


6)    Hindsight bias

You could also call this one the “I knew it all along” effect. How many times have you heard someone say those words in life (not to mention in trading)?


I just knew Euro would fall after the ECB meeting.


Argh, I meant to go long on gold but didn’t get time. I knew it was going up.


We tend to believe that (of course much later than the event itself) that the onset of a past event was entirely predictable and obvious, whereas during the event we were not able to predict it.


Due to another bias (which we will not cover today) called “narrative bias” we tend to want to assign a narrative or a “story” to an event that allows us to believe that events are predictable and that we can somewhat predict or control the future. It allows us to try to make sense of the world around us.


How to overcome: Just stop pretending like you knew what was going to happen. If you didn’t put skin in the game, then you didn’t think it was going to happen!

 

7)    Overconfidence effect


Overconfidence as a trader allows us to believe that we are superior in our trading, which ultimately leads to hubris and poor decision making.


Whether it’s overconfidence on when to trade, what to trade (telling ourselves “sure I could normally trade AUDUSD, but why couldn’t I also be good at trading the South African rand?”) and how to trade a certain product.


We trade larger than we should, hold losers for longer than we should, relax our own risk management policy, become arrogant or complacent in our trading and this all leads to capital losses.


How to overcome: Ask yourself “What could I be wrong about” or “What makes me think I am far superior to all the others out there with this information”? The market will humble you eventually of course, but why not try to do it yourself before you shoot yourself in the foot?


8)    Anchoring


The first bit of information we hear is what we focus on.


If you ever need to negotiate with someone, you’ll be amazed at the power of anchoring with your first offer (Do try it sometime, just not with your friendly forex broker though ;-))


The same applies to trading. We hear a talking head on TV telling us about how the euro is overvalued and is heading for some drastic number that is streets away from today’s price. We can’t get that number out of our head even if we try.


Or let’s say we buy AUDUSD at .7100, close it at .7300 for a decent profit, happy days! The next week, it’s back at .7100 and we immediately are tempted to do the same again, because why not? It’s cheap again and we can repeat history. We rush into it, ignoring the technical break it’s just had or the negative sentiment on Australian Economic Data. We practically feel it’s a bargain at those levels.  


What do we do? The worst part is that we’re usually not even aware of how strong the influence is.


That’s the power of the anchor. We become attached to that information.  


How to overcome: This one is tough to overcome because studies show it can be so hidden in our subconscious without us knowing. Perhaps add to your trading checklist “Was this trade a result of an unknown anchor that I saw or heard?”


 

9) Consistency Bias

Like the sunk cost fallacy, we want to be consistent in our actions.


We’d hate for someone to say to us that we weren’t being fair or that last week we had said we’d do X and now had changed our minds.


Politicians do it all the time as they rigidly stick to a poor policy idea. They’d rather go down with the ship.


Traders are worse because our own desire to be consistent costs us money.


If I am known as a USD bear, and it’s rallying hard – I don’t want to look stupid or inconsistent. That’s why I keep staying bearish despite being 1000 pips from being right! It’ll come back we say. Everyone else is being stupid.


In 2009, 2010, 2011 and probably countless years since the financial crisis, people were always calling for the “double-dip” recession. I fell for it myself personally by believing them in 2009 and 2010 and staying too cautious when I should’ve thrown the house at buying stocks!


We want to feel in control. We want people to see our conviction, even if we’re wrong. Because this is a byproduct of confirmation bias, we’re not likely to seek disconfirming evidence of what we believe. We see what we want to see.


Why? Because sadly consistency is often associated with our intellectual and personal strength. Good traders should be seen as flexible. Open to the idea that they are probably wrong. Yet society thinks an inconsistent person is flaky, confused or a ‘flip-flopper’ on issues – even though we could all benefit from being open-minded to new ideas and opinions!

 

10) The Halo Effect

Last but not least - The halo effect is the final bias we’ll talk about today.


The halo effect means we let our overall impression of someone influence our thinking too greatly.


“But he’s so smart we say”


We idolise the opinions of the legendary hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio or the great investor of our time, Warren Buffet.


We see them on TV or in a Bloomberg article saying now is a buying opportunity or that it’s risk-off and we need to sell.


“If Buffet/Dalio/ is buying/selling now, I’ve gotta too,” we say in our head.


But how smart is that a strategy, really? What might he know that I don’t? What are his investment objectives versus mine? More important – how many times has he said this and actually been wrong?


We don’t know and we shouldn’t try to know. The halo effect blinds to sticking to our own plan and staying in our lane. The more we’re influenced by others, the harder trading becomes.


How to overcome: We must take the opinions of the so-called “Masters of the universe” with a grain of salt. They have different plans than we do. Information that we do or don’t have and so much more. Just because they’ve said this doesn’t make it come true. If only trading were that easy!

 

What do I do now?


OK, so I might have scared you. You are now jumping at shadows and questioning your own trading decisions, believing you have all these secret, hidden disadvantages that you didn’t have until 10 minutes ago.


Do not worry, biases can never be completely avoided. But we can work hard on challenging our opinions in order to make us more successful. Sometimes it’s just taking the time to stop and think.


To help you along the way, we’ve created a possible checklist for making better decisions in your trading.


So, stop, take a breath and ask yourself these 7 questions before you place your next trade.


What’s the rationale for taking this trade? List 3 for and 3 against.


How strong is the evidence behind my decision to trade?


What are the possible unknown unknowns?


Has the recency of information I’ve learned influenced my decision? If so, how much?


 Is this trade following the consensus of the crowd? If so, is that a good thing?


Did I hear this from a famous market commentator/investor? Why is that important?


 If none of questions 1-6 apply, then could any of the other biases above be at work?


 


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Why You've Got a Bigger Advantage than Professionals
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You’ll often hear in the media or from professional market participants that retail clients “shouldn’t try to compete with the professionals”.


Ignoring the condescension here for a moment (“the adults will take it from here”) it is my firm belief after ten years of trading that this isn’t always true.


Sure, any beginner will find it challenging at the beginning to trade successfully, but you can’t expect to play like Roger Federer after one match of tennis, can you?


Charlie Ellis, the man who oversaw the $24 billion Yale endowment fund in the US once, said “watch a pro football game and it's obvious the guys on the field are faster, stronger and more willing to bear and inflict more pain than you are. Surely you would say ‘I don’t want to play against those guys.”


But Charlie is wrong in a few ways.


Yes, professional traders and institutions have many advantages at their fingertips. They get news faster than you do. Their trades go more quickly than yours. They pay far less than you do. You get the picture.


But it’s not all doom and gloom. Here are a few reasons why:


Time


No, not in the sense that you have more actual time to trade than them.


You probably don’t.


You’ve probably got a full-time job.


You might have kids or ailing parents to look after.


Trading is like a side hustle for you.


BUT your time horizon is different from theirs.


You can hold a trade for days or weeks without a Manager yelling at you “Why the hell are you selling euros, you dummy… the market is going up”. You might enter a trade on gold and plan to hold it for months.


A professional fund manager or trader might not have that luxury due to quarterly reviews, investor pressure or whatever else.


Professional Risk


Professional or Career risk is one I picked up from famed value investor, Howard Marks. In his book “The Most Important Thing” (one of my favourite investing/trading books of all time – buy it!) he talks about how in the GFC there was so much pressure on investors to not look silly by calling the bottom of the market or “catching a falling knife”. No one wanted to be the guy in the office who was buying Citibank at $1 per share!


Similar to my time point above, you don’t have that problem.


You don’t have your colleagues questioning you why you’ve bought or sold some instrument. Or a boss that is screaming at you and putting you into an emotionally defensive position trying to justify your actions.


Will you lose your job for selling USDJPY? No.


Does a professional trader get fired for always missing targets or taking on too much risk? Yes.


You need to work out what you’re happy with in your trading goals and go for them.


It’s entirely up to you what you define as success. The Pros don’t have that luxury.


Benchmarks


Which brings me to my next point.


Most professional traders and investors have a benchmark. If you’re a fund manager you’ll send out your monthly report to your investors saying “here is how much we made/lost.. and here is what the benchmark did”.


If you miss that benchmark, get ready for investor withdrawals. As a professional, you’re judged on your performance. Simple as that. The more investors leave. The more you have to sell. The more you sell, the worse your performance!


What’s your benchmark? You get to set your own. Happy with 1% a month? Awesome.


What about $100 a month so you can buy your wife dinner? Happy days.


Or $5,000 a month so you can pay off your mortgage? Even better.


It comes back to autonomy and your desires. No one else decides that but you.


Fees and Expenses


Believe it or not, you do have a HUGE advantage here, especially if you’re trading with a low-cost broker (hello, Fusion!)


If you’re a professional investor/manager, you’ll often have a significant research team, a very fancy office with lovely views, staff bonuses, visits to various investment conferences etc.


Not to mention all that travel to see your clients and investors!


Putting that aside for a moment, if you choose a good broker, you’ll pay zero spread and a small commission that is not far off what the pros trade. They’ve got $100,000,000 though, you’ve got one thousand!


So, ignore the haters telling you to stay out of the market because its only for the big boys.


However, let me be clear.


I’m not saying trading is easy and (unlike some) and that you can soon retire on the beach. It’s not. Trading FX, in particular, is a highly challenging exercise.


But don’t just assume because there are so many professionals in this that you can’t succeed or you’ll never be good enough. You have to play your own game, and for me, that’s the best part. I set my own rules as to what I consider success. That’s something the pros will never get.  


If you’d like to start trading and use your advantages to outperform the pros, Sign Up to Fusion Markets and get your feet wet with our demo account. When you're ready start a live account to start making real-time trades.

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Ethereum Trading: All You Need to Know
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What is Ethereum?  


You may have heard of Ethereum being compared to Bitcoin, but Ethereum isn’t actually the digital currency itself. Instead, Ethereum is the technology that can run various financial services like payment systems, identity software, security programs, and of course, cryptocurrency trading.  

But how does this technology work?  

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum also uses blockchain technology, but there are quite a few differences on the deeper, more technical side. Blockchain technology is the foundation that supports all of Ethereum’s services.  

The biggest feature of Ethereum is that it is a programmable blockchain. This means that you’re free to use the technology according to your own needs. Whether you need it for payments, software, or even Bitcoin, you’re free to do that!  


Some of the world’s biggest companies are using blockchain in various ways, which shows how flexible the technology is. BMW, the renowned automaker, is using the Ethereum blockchain to track materials across its supply chain.  

De Beers, the biggest diamond mining company globally, is using the Ethereum blockchain to track diamonds from mining to selling. HSBC is also using the blockchain to conduct foreign exchange trades on its FX Everywhere platform.  

The blockchain can be used on just about any technology that requires information to be logged and verified.   

But if you’re here reading this article, you’re probably more interested in investing in cryptocurrency or buying cryptocurrencies. That would be ETH or Ether.  

  

What is the difference between Ether and Ethereum?  


If Ethereum is the technology, then Ether is the cryptocurrency that runs on that technology. However, for most people, “Ethereum” and “Ether” are used interchangeably to refer to the digital currency instead of the technology.  

The shorthand for Ether is ETH, and just like Bitcoin, ETH is a form of decentralised finance or “defi.”  

This means that the digital currency is not centrally regulated by one authority. Instead, all the computers on the blockchain do the work of validating each and every transaction on the network.  

Ether is up there with Bitcoin as one of the most highly traded cryptocurrencies globally, along with Ripple XRP and Litecoin and others available on Fusion Markets’ platforms.   

  

The benefits of trading Ethereum  


As with any digital currency, the biggest benefit of trading Ethereum is the lack of centralised regulation because of blockchain technology. This means that making fraudulent transactions on the network is extremely difficult and almost impossible.  

However, one thing that makes Ether different from Bitcoin is that the supply of Eth is limitless.  

Let’s break it down a little bit.  

The way Bitcoin works is people are constantly “mining” for Bitcoin. However, there is a predefined limit for the amount of Bitcoin that can ever be in circulation. Once all the available Bitcoin has been mined, that’s all the Bitcoin that will ever circulate.  

The Bitcoin mining rate slows down over time, so the prediction is that the last Bitcoin will be mined at around 2140. That’s over a hundred years from now, but it’s still a definite time that will arrive.  

For most people, the problem with the limited supply of Bitcoin is that it can create issues like high inflation levels in the future.  

The supply of Ether does not have the same limitations that Bitcoin has. Thus, it can be more stable in its fluctuations, and this effectively works as a hedge against extreme inflation.  

Ether is also less volatile, at least when compared to Bitcoin. So if you’re looking to invest or trade in cryptocurrencies, but you want to minimise the volatility, Ether may be right up your alley.  

  

Risk Management when it comes to Ethereum  


Despite the lower volatility levels of Ethereum, it is still a cryptocurrency. This means that unlike more traditional investments like stocks and forex, its price is still quite volatile in comparison.  

So, when trading or investing in Ethereum, it’s essential to employ risk management practices.  

First, only use as much money as you’re willing to lose. This is a basic precept for investing or trading in general, and it applies to Ethereum as well. The price of ETH in 2021 may be high, and it may look like it will continue to rise, but no one can really predict the next price movement.  

Second, diversify. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. If you want to trade cryptocurrency, make sure to allocate your funds across multiple digital currencies. That way, if the price of one plummets, you still have your holdings in other cryptocurrencies to rely on.  

Third, do your own research. Don’t rely on social media gurus or finance forum posts that tell you when to buy or sell. Cryptocurrency is a fairly new concept, and it’s pretty much still in its infancy stages.   

If you’re investing in ETH, make sure that you understand it, how it works, and what the technology behind it is.  

A good investment is one where you believe in the product you’re investing in.   

While it’s true that no one can really predict how the price of the cryptocurrency will move, it’s much safer to put your money in investments that you’ve done research in instead of just blindly following what you see on social media.  

Finally, make sure to monitor your own physical and mental health while trading cryptocurrency. The markets run 24/7, and you don’t want to be looking at charts all day while ignoring your own well-being.   

Taking care of your mind and body allows you to make better, more rational trading decisions, dramatically reducing the risk.  

Risk management is a fundamental skill that any reasonable investor or trader should have. There are plenty of risks when it comes to ETH and cryptocurrency in general. Risk is unavoidable, so the best thing we can do is to manage and minimize it.  

  

The Future of Ethereum  


Despite cryptocurrency being a new concept and Ethereum being fairly more recent than Bitcoin, its rise in the charts shows that it’s here to stay.  

The main selling point of Ethereum is how its blockchain technology compares to Bitcoin, and with the number of people investing in or trading ETH, it’s clear that there is widespread acceptance and trust for ETH.  

Will ETH keep its place as one of the top cryptocurrencies in the future? The truth is, nobody knows. Governments are still only beginning to recognise and regulate cryptocurrencies, so the future of ETH is, as a whole, uncertain.  

But for some people, that uncertainty is what makes ETH such a good investment. Hopefully, this article has helped get you started on the basics of trading ETH. 

 


Ethereum Trading
Crypto currency
Education
22.10.2021
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